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Analysis of China's agricultural product supply and demand situation in December 2021

———— Time:2021-12-14   Edit:  Number of times read:49 ————

Corn: According to the announcement of theNational Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, the sown area of corn will be 43324.1thousand hectares, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year; the yield perhectare is 6291.0 kg, a decrease of 0.4% over the previous year, and theoutput is 272.552 million tons, an increase of 4.6% over the previous year.The corn forecast data for 2021/22 are adjusted accordingly. The sown area isincreased by 654,000 hectares higher than last month’s forecast, the yield perunit area is reduced by 59 kg per hectare from the last month’s forecast, andthe total output is 1.59 million tons higher than last month’s forecast. 10,000tons, and the annual balance change was adjusted to 1.83 million tons.Other supply and demand forecast data remain the same as last month. In thenear future, corn in the main producing areas will be concentrated on themarket, and the market supply is expected to increase in the later period.

 

Soybeans: According to data released by theNational Bureau of Statistics, China's soybean planting area will be 126million mu in 2021, a decrease of 22 million mu, 14.8% lower than the previousyear. The soybean yield is 130 kg per mu, and a decrease of 2.3 kg permu, 1.8% lower than the previous year. Soybean output was 32.8 billioncatties, a decrease of 6.4 billion catties, 16.4% lower than the previousyear. The forecast data for the year 2021/22 were adjusted accordingly. Interms of production, the planted area was reduced by 947,000 hectares from theforecast value last month. Yield per hectare was reduced by 45 kg per hectarefrom last month's forecast, and total output was reduced by 2.25 million tonsfrom last month's forecast. In terms of consumption, as the actual soybeanproduction in 2021/22 is lower than expected, soybean prices are expected tocontinue to run at a high level, which will suppress the demand fordomestic soybeans for food and oil extraction. This month, the consumption ofdomestic soybeans for food and oil extraction will be appropriately reduced.Internationally, Brazil’s soybean-producing areas have good weather conditions,planting work has basically ended, and the area has increased over the previousyear; the soybean harvest in the United States has been completed, productionhas increased, and oil extraction demand has remained high level. Affected byuncertain factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic and extreme weather, it isexpected International soybean prices fluctuated.

 

Cotton: The harvesting of cotton in 2021/22 isbasically completed, and processing and sales are slow. According to themonitoring of China CNCOTTON website, as of December 2, the national new cottonprocessing rate and sales rate were 68.5% and 9.5% respectively, down 5.6% and16.6% year-on-year. During the cotton growing and harvesting period, theclimate conditions were generally suitable, and the cotton output remainedunchanged from last month's forecast. Since September, the growth rate ofChina's textile and apparel exports has continued to decline. Cotton importshave fallen by 67.5% from the same period last year. Imports have been loweredby 100,000 tons to 2.4 million tons. Consumption has temporarily maintainedthe same as last month's forecast.

 

Edible vegetable oil: This month’s forecast isthat China’s edible vegetable oil production in 2021/22 will be 29.66 milliontons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous month’s forecast. Amongthem, due to the relatively high price of rapeseed and the activedevelopment and utilization of winter fallow fields in the southern region, China'swinter rapeseed planting area is expected to increase by 5 million mu comparedwith the previous year in 2021, and rapeseed oil production is adjusted to6.16 million tons. Affected by the reduction of domestic soybean productionand oil extraction consumption, soybean oil production decreased slightly.Recently, the main winter rapeseed production areas in China have good lightand temperature conditions, suitable moisture content, and weather conditionsare conducive to the survival of rapeseed transplantation. Most of the rapeseedin the Yangtze River Basin is in the fifth true leaf to the current stage oftransplanting, and some parts of Jiangxi have entered the budding stage. Theproportions of the first and second types of seedlings are 11% and 87%respectively in China. This month, no adjustments will be made to the forecastvalues of China's edible vegetable oil consumption, trade, and price range for2021/22.

 

Sugar: Since October, under the influence of LaNiña, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has experienced the strongest coldwave during the same period in the past 45 years, and sugar beets have beenaffected. Because the planting income is lower than that of corn and othercash crops, the planting area of sugarbeet in the Inner Mongolia producing areas has fallen more than expected. Based on overall considerations, this month reduce the beetplanting area of 201-222 by 23 thousand hectares, a total of 160 thousandhectares, and reduce the sugar planting area to 1365 thousand hectares;reduce the beet sugar production by 140,000 tons to a total of 1 million tons. Reducedsugar production to 10.17 million tons. The low temperature and rainyweather in the main producing areas of Guangxi in early November affected theaccumulation of sugar cane sugar, but the recent weather has recovered andimproved, which is conducive to sugar accumulation. Due to the continuouslisting of new sugar, the high level of raw sugar imports, and theremaining sugar carryover inventory from the previous year, the sugar supply issufficient, but the expected reduction in production and the increase in sugarproduction costs have formed a certain degree of support for sugar prices.Internationally, sugar production in major sugar-producing countries (regions)in the northern hemisphere such as India and Thailand have continued. The COVID-19epidemic has repeated, and international sugar prices have fluctuated. In thelater stage, it is necessary to pay close attention to the uncertain impactof the epidemic on sugar supply and demand. There will be no adjustments todata such as sugar consumption, import and export volume, and prices for theyear 2021/22 this month.